Chargers vs. Raiders Betting Prediction: Odds and Picks


Originally posted on www.crossingbroad.com

 

 

The Chargers and Raiders have each had their share of ups and downs this season, but both teams remain very much alive in the playoff hunt in what is a wide-open AFC ahead of their divisional clash that kicks off Week 10 tonight. PA online sportsbooks are offering up tons of great action tonight’s game, particularly at DraftKings Sportsbook PA, which just launched, so let’s get into what you need to know and where your money should go with our Chargers vs. Raiders betting predictions.

Typically, when you expect the most out of the Chargers, that’s when you get the least. When you expect nothing from them, that’s when they give you a convincing 26-11 win over the previously 7-1 Packers. It feels like that’s the way it has been for years with this team, and so that puts bettors in a bit of a precarious spot tonight with the Chargers favored on the road.

After the Chargers fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt early last week following a 17-16 win over the Bears, quarterback Philip Rivers had his most efficient game of the season, completing a season-high 75% of his pass attempts and posting a season-high 10.5 yards per attempt against a formidable Packers defense. Go figure.

That performance has bettors back on the Chargers once again this week as they initially opened against the Raiders as a one-point underdog but market action has since moved them to a short favorite. Oakland, too, has been tough to figure out after an uneven 4-4 start highlighted by an impressive road win at Indy and marred by noncompetitive losses to the Chiefs, Packers, and Vikings.

Should bettors beware of the home dog tonight, or will the Chargers grab their third straight win and climb back to .500? Let’s get into it.

How to Bet on Chargers vs. Raiders

Pennsylvania

It’s all about DraftKings Sportsbook PA, which just went live this week in Pennsylvania and is offering new users a generous $200 first-bet match available right here .

We also recommend FOX Bet PA because of its $20 sign-up bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab here .

New Jersey

Indiana

How to Watch Chargers vs. Raiders

  • Date: Thursday, November 7
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
  • Location: Oakland Alameda County Coliseum (Oakland, CA)
  • Network: FOX/NFL Network
  • Announcers: Joe Buck (play-by-play), Troy Aikman (color analyst), Erin Andrews and Kristina Pink (sideline)
  • Radio: KFI-AM 640 (Chargers), 95.7 The Game (Raiders)

Chargers vs. Raiders Weather

Ideal weather conditions are expected in Oakland on Thursday evening with temperatures at kickoff in the upper 50s under clear skies. Temps are expected to dip into the low 50s by the fourth quarter with light WNW winds blowing at 8 mph. In other words, it should be damn near perfect.

Chargers vs. Raiders Odds

Here are the current Chargers vs. Raiders betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 10:30 a.m. Thursday morning:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Chargers       -1.5 (-110)      -122   O 49 (-110)
Raiders       +1.5 (-110)      +108   U 49 (-110)

Win Probability

Let’s check out FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection to see how it stacks up with current legal sportsbook odds.

Checking ELO and similar projection models is a worthwhile exercise to find potential betting value.

As for tonight’s game, ELO projects this one as a pick’em and gives Oakland a 51% chance to win outright. With Los Angeles currently favored by 1.5 points at most legal online sportsbooks, the ELO projection, then, suggests there is 1.5 points of betting value on the Raiders.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of DraftKings -122 moneyline odds on the Chargers is 55%, which means that the moneyline price is more expensive than what the ELO projection would suggest (+104 would be in line with a 49% win probability).

As for the Raiders, the implied win probability of their +108 moneyline odds at FanDuel is 48.1%, meaning there is some slight value on their moneyline price.

Chargers vs. Raiders Injury Report

Here is the final injury report from Wednesday afternoon:

For the Chargers, defensive tackle Justin Jones remains out with a shoulder injury, while nose tackle Brandon Mebane and linebacker Denzel Perryman are both questionable and will be game-time decisions. The Chargers are 20th in the NFL this season, allowing over 114 yards per game on the ground and have the league’s eighth-worst run defense thus far, according to DVOA rankings. That could spell trouble against Oakland running back Josh Jacobs:

The rookie tailback has tallied 740 yards on 152 carries this season (4.9 ypc) and has eclipsed the 120-yard mark in three of his last four games.

Meanwhile, the Raiders could be without left tackle Trent Brown and center Rodney Hudson, which would be problematic against an emerging Chargers pass rush that has accumulated a total of nine sacks over its last three outings.

Chargers vs. Raiders Three Things to Know

  1. The Raiders defense has allowed an average of 354 passing yards per game, a 70.3% completion percentage, and 11 total passing touchdowns over its last three games, while producing only one interception.
  2. The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 123.8 yards per game on the ground over its last five games. The Packers produced only 45 yards on 11 attempts a week ago, but still managed 4.1 ypc. Josh Jacobs is averaging 108.3 yards per game on the ground and 4.8 ypc over his last four contests.
  3.  The Chargers are 9-3 on the road since the start of the 2018 season, while the Raiders are 6-6 at home (3-1 this season).

Recommended Bets

FOX Bet’s Custom Sal’s Money Back Special has been a popular Thursday night betting promo. This week’s guaranteed money-back offer is on there to be a missed field goal or missed extra point and Philip Rivers to eclipse 300+ passing yards. A few quick notes on this one:

  • Rivers looks like a pretty good bet to go over 300 yards passing tonight. As noted above, the Oakland defense has been vulnerable to the pass this season, particularly in recent weeks (354 yards per game over its last three outings), while Rivers has gone over 300 yards five times this season and fell just short on two other occasion (293 and 294 yards). Last season, Rivers lit up this defense for 562 total passing yards (281 yards per game) and four total touchdowns on only 53 pass attempts in two meetings.
  • Chargers kicker Michael Badgley made his return last week and connected on four (29, 40, 34, 43) of five field goal attempts (his lone miss came from 44 yards out), while also hitting both of his extra point attempts. For his career, he’s 19 of 21 (90.5%) on field goal attempts and 29 of 30 on extra points.
  • Raiders kicker Daniel Carson is seven for nine on field goal attempts this season and 23 for 23 on extra points. There’s no particular data that suggests either of these fairly sure-footed kickers will miss tonight, but the 80.1% success rate of all NFL kickers on field goal attempts this season is the lowest conversion rate since 2003, so there’s that.

Also of note, FOX Bet is offering 12 different bet boosts on this game. One that jumps out is a longshot +450 payout on the Chargers to win and score at least three touchdowns, Rivers to throw for 325+ yards, and Keenan Allen to go over 80 yards (boosted from +380).

Meanwhile, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering insurance of up to $25 on all moneyline bets lost by teams that score at least 24 points as well as an odds boost on Josh Jacobs to score a touchdown and the Raiders to win (boosted to +325 from +225). It’s worth noting that Jacobs has scored two touchdowns in three of the Raiders’ four wins this season, so if you like Oakland tonight, then this play makes sense.

Chargers vs. Raiders Betting Trends

Note: All historical trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing the Chargers is a Good Bet

Great Spots for the Road Favorite

I love a good home underdog, but the trends are pointing in the opposite direction for this game:

  • Road favorites in division games are 56-44-3 ATS in primetime games.
  • Road favorites in Thursday division games are 23-13-2 ATS.
  • Road favorites in AFC West division games are 41-25-1 ATS and 23-14-1 ATS after the month of October.
  • Road favorites of three or less in AFC West division games are 17-9 ATS.

Road Warriors

The Chargers have excelled on the road lately:

  • The Chargers are 7-2 ATS as a road favorite under Anthony Lynn.
  • The Chargers have won four of their last five games as a road favorite of three points or less.
  • Since the start of last season, the Chargers are 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS on the road.

Why Backing the Raiders is a Good Bet

Honestly, I couldn’t find much information that supports a play on the Raiders, but I did find this:

  • When two teams are each coming off a win and the road team is favored by 2.5 points or less in a primetime game, those teams are only 4-12 ATS And 2-5 ATS in division games.
  • The Raiders are 2-0 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less since the start of last season.

A Word on the Total

The under is 51-34-1 in division games played in November or later with a closing total between 48-50 points and it’s 10-3 when the game is played between two AFC West teams. The under is also 15-10 when the total closes in that range in division primetime games played in November or later and 3-1 in AFC West matchups.

The under has also hit in each of the last five meetings between these two teams.

Where’s the Action Going?

We’ve seen some strong line movement in this game. The Raiders opened at -1 but are now +1.5 with 66% of all spread bets and 56% of the money still on the Chargers. Meanwhile, the total opened at 47.5 and is now pushing 49, but the action has basically evened out with 49% of all bets and 48% of the money currently on the over.

Chargers vs. Raiders Prediction

It’s time to make a Chargers vs. Raiders prediction.

The Chargers have probably burned me more than any other team in my betting career, so take the following with a grain of salt.

I expect the Chargers to move the ball through the air at will against a struggling pass defense, while I also believe that an improving Los Angeles pass rush will do enough to disrupt a resurgent Derek Carr (1,984 yards, 13 TD, 4 INT).

The Chargers’ road success and the overall success of short road favorites in spots similar to this one are simply too much to ignore, so I’m going to roll with them here.

In terms of the total, it feels like this one has the potential for some scoring, but the Chargers and Raiders are two offenses that tend to move at a slow pace (each team is in the bottom half of the league) and the under is typically the right play in later season division games.

Prediction: Chargers (-1.5) over Raiders and Under 49 points


Bob Wankel

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