Originally posted on www.crossingbroad.com
It’s about that time again. Thursday night is here, Week 7 of the NFL regular season is upon us, and it’s time to see if we can start off a big weekend of football betting across PA online sportsbooks with a win in our Chiefs vs. Broncos betting preview.
I believe in Andy Reid.
Fatal last words if uttered in January, I know, but if said during the regular season throughout Big Red’s 21-year head coaching career, that belief has been rewarded more often than not.
It’s okay. I know you’re scared, but say it with me…I believe in Andy Reid…I believe in Andy (gulp) Reid.
To ease your concern, Reid has won 10 or more games a remarkable 13 times throughout his first 20 seasons, accumulating a .612 winning-percentage in the process. That doesn’t just happen by accident.
The Chiefs looked poised to coast past the double-digit win mark once again this season after getting out to a perfect 4-0 September start behind early-season MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes, but have uncharacteristically sputtered in back-to-back October losses at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Broncos, meanwhile, struggled through a winless first month before rebounding on the strength of a suffocating defense that has allowed a total of only 13 points combined in back-to-back wins, setting up a crucial AFC West clash tonight in Denver.
You know already know who I’ve got in this one because I believe in Andy Reid, baby, and I’ve got plenty of reasons why, so let’s get into it.
How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Broncos
There are plenty of odds boosts and excellent promos available as Week 7 of the NFL season kicks off tonight. As always, we encourage bettors to shop around and take advantage of the market’s best deals.
For those of you in the state of New Jersey, check our comprehensive NJ online sports betting page that is stocked with sportsbook reviews, welcome offers, and sign-up bonuses.
How to Watch Chiefs vs. Broncos
- Date: Thursday, October 17
- Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver, CO)
- Network: FOX
- Announcers: Joe Buck (play-by-play), Troy Aikman (color analyst), Erin Andrews and Kristina Pink (sideline)
- Radio: KOA 94.1 FM (Denver), 101 The Fox (Kansas City)
Chiefs vs. Broncos Weather
You can play matchups, historical trends, and follow your gut all you want, but placing a bet on an outdoor game without checking the weather report is just irresponsible, so let’s do that right now.
Conditions at Empower Field at Mile High are expected to be ideal tonight with temps hovering around 70 degrees under clear skies at kickoff. Expect temperatures to drop into the mid-60s by the fourth quarter.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds
Here are the current Chiefs-Broncos betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 12:00 p.m. Thursday afternoon:
|Chiefs||-3 (-110)||-154||O 49 (-118)|
|Broncos||+3 (-110)||+135||U 49 (-110)|
|Chiefs||-3 (-110)||-165||O 48.5 (-110)|
|Broncos||+3 (-110)||+143||U 48.5 (-110)|
|Chiefs||-3 (-120)||-160||O 48.5 (-105)|
|Broncos||+3 (+100)||+138||U 48.5 (-115)|
ELO and similar projection models aren’t a perfect science, but it’s a worthwhile exercise to evaluate multiple sources for pronounced disparities between the betting odds and projection models in search of potential betting value.
As for tonight’s game, the ELO projection model has the Chiefs favored by four points and with a 64% win probability. With Kansas City currently favored by three points, ELO suggests there is one point of betting value on the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of FOX Bet’s -154 moneyline odds is 60.6%, which means that price provides some value in relation to the ELO projection.
As for the Broncos, the implied win probability of their +135 moneyline odds at FOX Bet is 42.6%, meaning the home team’s moneyline price is a bit juiced up against the ELO projection.
FOX Bet does an excellent job incorporating its network talent into its betting app. Cousin Sal’s Custom Sal’s Money Back Special has been a popular Thursday night promo. This week’s money-back offer is on Denver running back Phillip Lindsay to gain 100 yards from scrimmage and score a touchdown at +400 odds.
Some quick analysis: Lindsay has gone over 100 total yards from scrimmage twice in six games thus far in 2019 and has scored a total of four touchdowns (all rushing) spread out over three different contests. He’s gained over 100 yards from scrimmage and scored in two of his six games.
In two games against Kansas City last season, Lindsay scored a total of two touchdowns (one in each game) and averaged a total of 95.5 yards from scrimmage per game. In the Broncos’ first meeting with the Chiefs last season, he amassed 79 total yards and a score. He followed that up with 112 total yards and a touchdown in the second meeting.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defense has been atrocious in recent weeks against opponents’ lead backs. Here’s an example of why:
Carlos Hyde’s 26-yard carry.
— Keke Coutee run action and that Fells drag both mounted on to the play, look at KC’s second level pull right before play. End has to honor Watson.
— Good blocks from Fulton and Johnson, untouched to the secondary pic.twitter.com/9H5QZWZoj0
— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) October 16, 2019
Unsurprisingly, Kansas City’s inability to stop the run has played a big role in its recent struggles. Here’s what opposing backs have done against them over the last three weeks:
- Week 4: Kerryon Johnson ran for 125 yards on 26 carries and hauled in two passes for 32 yards, but he failed to find the end zone.
- Week 5: Marlon Mack ran for 132 yards on 29 carries and caught three passes for 16 yards, but he did not score.
- Week 6: Carlos Hyde ran for 116 yards on 26 carries with a touchdown and caught one pass for 14 yards.
Yikes. That’s an average of 145 scrimmage yards per game to opponents’ lead backs, thus making Lindsay to gain 100 total yards and score an enticing bet. That, and, you know, the fact it’s a no-risk, money-back bet.
Also of note, FOX Bet is offering four different bet bosts on Chiefs-Broncos, including:
- Travis Kelce to score and KC to win at +225
- Broncos +3.5 and Over 48.5 points at +260
- Chiefs -10.5 and Patrick Mahomes 350+ passing yards (+700)
- Tyreek Hill to score 2+ TD (+900)
Chiefs vs. Broncos Betting Trends
Note: All historical trends date back to the start of the 2003 season.
There’s no suspense with this preview.
Kudos to Vic Fangio’s squad for its refusal to fold after a difficult start, but I’m all over the Chiefs tonight. The trend data supports this position.
Believe in Andy
Not buying my Andy Reid love? Consider the following trends:
- The Chiefs are an outstanding 18-9 ATS as a road favorite under Andy Reid.
- The Chiefs are 15-4 ATS in division road games under Reid.
- The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less in division games and 8-4 ATS in all games as a road favorite of three points or less under Reid.
- The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in division road games during the months of September and October under Reid.
Kansas City has gotten the best of this series in recent meetings. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Denver and have covered six of their last seven games against the Broncos.
Kansas City has stumbled, while Denver has gotten off the mat over the past two weeks, but don’t let recency bias sway you. Here’s why:
- Favorites coming off a loss are 34-24-3 ATS in Thursday games, while underdogs coming off a win are 31-46-4 ATS overall and 7-13-2 ATS at home on a short week.
- Road favorites in division games are 92-68-5 ATS when coming off a loss and 52-38-1 ATS when favored by three points or less off a loss.
- Favorites on a two-game losing streak against teams on a two-game winning streak are 8-3 ATS during the months of September and October.
- Road teams on a two-game losing streak that are favored by four points or less are 7-0-1 ATS in Thursday games.
A Note on the Spread
AFC West road favorites of three points or less are 17-10 in division games.
A Word on the Total
I’ll be honest, I want to bet the over tonight. Peak conditions, a potential rebound spot for the Kansas City offense after some uncharacteristic recent struggles, and expected regression for what has been an outstanding Denver defense over its last two games had me thinking there could be some points put up tonight.
That being said, maybe I’ll go with my gut, but the trends don’t support it. Consider the following info:
- The under is 100-77-4 in all division games when the total is set at 49 points or more and 36-23-1 ATS when set between 49-50 points.
- The under is 28-15-1 in primetime division games that close with a total of 49 points or more and 19-8 in primetime division games that close between 49-51 points.
- The under is 20-13-1 in AFC West division games when the total closes at 49 points or more and 6-3 in AFC West division primetime games that close at 49 points or more.
- The under is 14-8 in AFC West games when the total closes between 48.5-51 points.
Where’s the Action Going?
As of noon Thursday, 79% of spread bets and 76% of the spread handle are on Kansas City.
While I’m a little bit concerned about the public backing the Chiefs so strongly, that concern isn’t enough to sway me.
When between 75-80% of total spread bets and money is on the same side, that team is 9-9 ATS in regular season contests.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction
It’s time to make a Chiefs-Broncos prediction.
I readily acknowledge that there are some concerns about backing the Chiefs tonight.
Underdogs are 56-35-1 ATS (61.5%) and 11-7 ATS (61.1%) in primetime game through six weeks. The average $100 bettor has made $1,731 if they have backed the underdog in every game this season.
The Broncos should also have success taking it to a Kansas City defensive front that has been simply terrible in recent weeks, while the Denver defense has been lights out over the last two weeks.
In other situations, I’d probably have serious reservations about backing a struggling three-point favorite on the road in a division game, but Andy Reid’s track record of success that I extensively elaborated on above calms those concerns, as does backing Patrick Mahomes over Joe Flacco.
Maybe I’m a sucker, but I expect the Chiefs to go on the road and grab a win and cover in a difficult environment.
Prediction: Chiefs (-3) over Broncos